Here are the ranking for the first baseman. They are organized in tiers to show the decline of production you will see as you move from level to level. This is a great way to setup your draft sheets when preparing for your draft. It allows you to see what the market is as the draft goes.
Tier 1
1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Lance Berkman
Tier 2
6. Derek Lee
7. Victor Martinez (You'll be playing him at catcher before you'll play him at 1b)
8. Justin Morneau
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Carlos Guillen (Better used at SS)
Tier 3
11. Carlos Pena
12. Nick Swisher
13. Paul Konerko
14. James Loney
15. Todd Helton
16. Alex Gordon (Better used at 3B)
17. Kevin Youkilis
Tier 4+
18. Carlos Delgado
19. Adam Laroche
20. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Better used at C)
21. Ryan Garko
22. Mike Jacobs
23. Casey Kotchman
24. Conor Jackson
25. Lyle Overbay
26. Joey Votto
27. Daric Barton
28. Richie Sexson
29. Aubrey Huff
30. Dan Johnson
31. Dmitri Young
32. Nomar Garciaparra
33. Nick Johnson
34. Matt Stairs
I was almost bold enough to put Ryan Howard above Albert Pujols. Howard puts up huge HR and RBI numbers to go along with about 100 runs per year. Pujols is consistent year in and year out. Its pretty incredible when an off year for a player is .327, 99 runs, 103 rbis, 32 HR. With a depleted lineup around him I do expect Pujols number to suffer some. It really wouldn't surprise me to see him get a higher Avg, similar HRs, but less runs and right around 100 rbis. That is still a great line for any player on your fantasy team but the allure of 50 HRs and 150 RBIs is very hard to pass up. Depending on how you plan on building your team choosing either one as the first 1B off the board could be alright.
Tier 2 offers some decent talent that can be found a little later in the draft (Rounds 4-6) so if you can't get some of the big bats in Tier 1, fill some other positions with strong players and grab one of these guys as they fall to you.Carlos Pena hit 46 homers last year so people may be wondering why isn't he tier 2. Expect some decline across the board. Will he still have some pop, absolutely but no way does his Avg. stay as high as it was. I say let him do again for a full year then I'll start believing.
Swisher moves to a top hitting park so his numbers could see a boost and he could produce tier 2 level production. Loney is a favorite of many people going into this year and I'm one to agree. He may struggle a bit at times, as young players do, but I'd rather have him over Todd Helton just because the potential is there for him to at least do what Todd Helton can do with a good chance of being even better (More HRs and RBIs).
Tier 4 is full of a variety of different players. We have some veterans who are declining (Delgado, Sexson, Nomar, Huff), some potential youth (Barton, Votto, Kotchman, Garko) and some middle of the road players who most likely won't hurt you (Overbay, Jackson, Laroche). These are the type of players that can only be drafted after you know how your team is built.If I see a need for HRs later in the draft I'd be more likely to draft an Adam Laroche or Delgado type player as long as I know my team can handle a low Avg. If my team is well balanced and I want to try to get some possible lightning in a bottle I'd take a Votto, Barton, or Garko. And if just need someone who won't hurt me in any category with the potential to produce more than previous years I'd go for a Conor Jackson, Lyle Overbay, Mike Jacobs type player.
Here are some picks that I think will come through and deliver some good production. I like Derek Lee to improve across the board as he gets another year away from his injuries. Adrian Gonzalez will put together another solid year of 30 HRs, 100 Rbis, 100 runs. James Loney will deliver as he becomes a key part to the Dodgers offense. Adam Laroche will bounce back with a year similar to his 2006 year with Atlanta. Conor Jackson will be able to get most of the at bats to himself with Tony Clark out of the picture, and we will see if he can fulfill any of his potential. Players I don't like at all for this year.
I don't like Carlos Pena, just because of where he may go in drafts he may have to duplicate his 2007 to justify where he will be taken. Delgado and Sexson will continue their declines, along with Nomar and Huff. Some people expect Garko to take it to the next level and improve but I think Garko is what he is, a decent corner option but nothing special. I see him with 20 HRs, .280 Avg, 65 runs, 75 RBIs.
Make sure on draft day you get solid production from your 1B spot. First base is not as deep as it used to be so don't think you will be getting star production later in the draft. It seems that first base is starting to get old so hopefully some of the new blood will rise up to take the place of the elders.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Thursday, January 17, 2008
WORST EARLY ROUND PICKS OF 2008
With draft season right around the corner people are are getting their practice in using a site called mockdraftcentral.com. I have participated in a bunch of mock drafts already this year and I've started to notice a few trends as well as other key information about the tendencies of how the drafts will pan out. In this article, we'll take a look at some of the worst early picks that I've seen on a consistent basis.
Ryan Braun leads the list of players that I just scratch my head at. Did he put up great numbers last year? Yes. Is it likely that he will duplicate those numbers? Possibly but unlikely. Pitchers will make adjustments, he is young and will go through some slumps. He is a good player and will most likely be a great player for years to come but how can one justify the risk involved with taking a player in their first or second round pick on an unproved player. Drafting a bust in the first few rounds is the easiest way to spell defeat in fantasy baseball. While you are taking a chance people are drafting sure bets like David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Grady Sizemore, and Carl Crawford.
The next player on this list is Chase Utley. Second base has never been so deep. In later rounds (10+) you can get players like Jeff Kent, Dustin Pedroia, Kaz Matsui, Freddy Sanchez, Aaron Hill. Even players like Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler are around in rounds 5-8. Chase Utley is a great player who can put up great numbers, but is he really worth a first round pick. He is good for 30-35 homers which is great, but the most he will give you is what 22 steals. He is a key part to the Phillies offense, I don't think he will be running as much as fantasy owners would like him to. In years where there were only 3 good 2b, Utley was deserving of 1st round consideration, not this year.
And this is the one that baffles me almost as much as Ryan Braun. Why does Jose Reyes get drafted so early? Let's look at his numbers: .281 avg, 119 runs, 57 rbis, 12 hrs, 78 steals. Well that looks like a 2 category player to me. When I use an early pick on a player I'd expect at least a 4 category player. Are steals really worth that much? One minor, lingering injury to Reyes like a sore quad, makes him useless.
Take Jimmy Rollins for example: .296 avg, 139 runs, 94 rbis, 30 hrs, 41 steals. Are 37 steals really worth taking Reyes over a 5 category player. Steals are worth something, no doubt but players like Willy Tavares, Kaz Matsui, and Jacoby Ellsbury are available in rounds 9+. Thats not to mention the players that come out of nowhere and gives us steal production. Players like Reggie Willits, Ryan Theriot, Chris Duffy, Nate Mclouth, Rajai Davis. How many players come out of nowhere and give us Jimmy Rollins production. Very few if any.
I doubt any of these picks will change going forward into draft season for most people. Alot of fantasy GMs are conditioned to draft a certain way and it is hard to change their ways. However, if you are smart enough to think outside the box you can take advantage of all the sheep who are drafting from the same magazine.
Ryan Braun leads the list of players that I just scratch my head at. Did he put up great numbers last year? Yes. Is it likely that he will duplicate those numbers? Possibly but unlikely. Pitchers will make adjustments, he is young and will go through some slumps. He is a good player and will most likely be a great player for years to come but how can one justify the risk involved with taking a player in their first or second round pick on an unproved player. Drafting a bust in the first few rounds is the easiest way to spell defeat in fantasy baseball. While you are taking a chance people are drafting sure bets like David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Grady Sizemore, and Carl Crawford.
The next player on this list is Chase Utley. Second base has never been so deep. In later rounds (10+) you can get players like Jeff Kent, Dustin Pedroia, Kaz Matsui, Freddy Sanchez, Aaron Hill. Even players like Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler are around in rounds 5-8. Chase Utley is a great player who can put up great numbers, but is he really worth a first round pick. He is good for 30-35 homers which is great, but the most he will give you is what 22 steals. He is a key part to the Phillies offense, I don't think he will be running as much as fantasy owners would like him to. In years where there were only 3 good 2b, Utley was deserving of 1st round consideration, not this year.
And this is the one that baffles me almost as much as Ryan Braun. Why does Jose Reyes get drafted so early? Let's look at his numbers: .281 avg, 119 runs, 57 rbis, 12 hrs, 78 steals. Well that looks like a 2 category player to me. When I use an early pick on a player I'd expect at least a 4 category player. Are steals really worth that much? One minor, lingering injury to Reyes like a sore quad, makes him useless.
Take Jimmy Rollins for example: .296 avg, 139 runs, 94 rbis, 30 hrs, 41 steals. Are 37 steals really worth taking Reyes over a 5 category player. Steals are worth something, no doubt but players like Willy Tavares, Kaz Matsui, and Jacoby Ellsbury are available in rounds 9+. Thats not to mention the players that come out of nowhere and gives us steal production. Players like Reggie Willits, Ryan Theriot, Chris Duffy, Nate Mclouth, Rajai Davis. How many players come out of nowhere and give us Jimmy Rollins production. Very few if any.
I doubt any of these picks will change going forward into draft season for most people. Alot of fantasy GMs are conditioned to draft a certain way and it is hard to change their ways. However, if you are smart enough to think outside the box you can take advantage of all the sheep who are drafting from the same magazine.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
TARGETING TIGERS Part 2
In the last article we took a look at the potent lineup of the Detroit Tigers. They offer tons of options for any fantasy GM. The Tigers rotation/bullpen also offers options to a fantasy GM.
Justin Verlander: Verlander is quickly becoming a top pitching option for fantasy GMs. With back to back years posting 17 wins and 18 wins as well as ERAs around 3.60, Verlander can be penciled in as any team's ace. His WHIP declined from 1.32 in 2006 to 1.23 in 2007. The most telling stat of his ascension into becoming a top fantasy option is his increase in K's. In only 14 more innings from 2006 to 2007, Verlander had 59 more punchouts. With the potent lineup of the Tigers the wins should keep coming no problem. He is getting better each year and is primed for another solid fantasy campaign.
Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman has never quite taken it to the next level like we all expected to see at this point. In fact last year he regressed. Some of that may have come from lingering injury concerns. With time to heal Bonderman once again comes into the season as a potential breakout candidate. Granted, expectations should be tempered. He will never become the elite starter that most thought he would be but he does offer solid 3rd starter numbers witht he potential of becoming a #2. His strikeouts are decent and with the solid lineup wins shouldn't be too much of a problem.
Kenny Rogers: Rogers is getting old but may still have something to contribute to a fantasy team. He is best used as a 5th starter at this point for fantasy purposes. If surrounded by other decent pitchers Roger's weaknesses can be overlooked. Roger's doesn't strikeout alot of hitters so don't expect any help in that department. With a good pitchers park and a potent lineup behind him, he should provide some wins with a decent WHIP and an ERA that won't kill your team (4.50). There are better options out there but Rogers still has uses in fantasy land.
Dontrelle Willis: Willis had a year to forget in 2007. But, with the trade to a World Series contender, a league switch, and a great lineup, he is in a position to bounce back. The league switch alone will improve his numbers. Hitters haven't really faced his quirky delivery and may have problems adjusting to it for the first few times around. I don't expect him to revert back to his 2005 form when he won 22 games with an ERA of 2.63, nor do I expect him to be as bad as he was last year. I see him being somewhere in between. Expect an ERA around 4.00, 13-16 wins just because of the lineup, and decent K's and WHIP. I consider Willis a 4th starter with a good chance of being a #3.
Nate Robertson: By now we all know what Nate Robertson is. He is very inconsistent from start to start. He shows flashes of brilliance followed by utter disaster. One thing he will be doing is playing on a team that could win over 90 games. He will be matching up against other team's #4 and #5 starters. If used properly, like 2 start weeks or favorable matchups, Robertson could provide a boost to fantasy teams.
Bullpen: Todd Jones returns to close for the Tigers in 2008. Jones is going to be ranked as a top 20 closer going into 2008 but it mostly has to do with his surrounding cast and situation. He will be playing for a team that will win tons of games and with the lineup behind him he will most likely come into games with a 3 run lead most nights. Jones is an overachiever at this point. With his age and poor K rate he can't truly be considered great amoung closer options. However, saves is a category and he will provide a bunch of them so he does have value.
Grabbing Fernando Rodney as a backup to Jones could be a smart play. Rodney did have an off year last year but mostly because of injuries lingering throughout the year. He will be first in line for saves if Jones fails in his role as closer.
Now granted, the Tigers pitchers aren't going to light the world on fire (except for Verlander) but they do provide some value. Detroit will be a top team in the AL and having a 3rd or 4th starter on the good team is usually better than have a 2nd or 3rd starter on a bad team. Keep the players in mind when most of the top talent is off the board and use them round out your fantasy rotation.
Justin Verlander: Verlander is quickly becoming a top pitching option for fantasy GMs. With back to back years posting 17 wins and 18 wins as well as ERAs around 3.60, Verlander can be penciled in as any team's ace. His WHIP declined from 1.32 in 2006 to 1.23 in 2007. The most telling stat of his ascension into becoming a top fantasy option is his increase in K's. In only 14 more innings from 2006 to 2007, Verlander had 59 more punchouts. With the potent lineup of the Tigers the wins should keep coming no problem. He is getting better each year and is primed for another solid fantasy campaign.
Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman has never quite taken it to the next level like we all expected to see at this point. In fact last year he regressed. Some of that may have come from lingering injury concerns. With time to heal Bonderman once again comes into the season as a potential breakout candidate. Granted, expectations should be tempered. He will never become the elite starter that most thought he would be but he does offer solid 3rd starter numbers witht he potential of becoming a #2. His strikeouts are decent and with the solid lineup wins shouldn't be too much of a problem.
Kenny Rogers: Rogers is getting old but may still have something to contribute to a fantasy team. He is best used as a 5th starter at this point for fantasy purposes. If surrounded by other decent pitchers Roger's weaknesses can be overlooked. Roger's doesn't strikeout alot of hitters so don't expect any help in that department. With a good pitchers park and a potent lineup behind him, he should provide some wins with a decent WHIP and an ERA that won't kill your team (4.50). There are better options out there but Rogers still has uses in fantasy land.
Dontrelle Willis: Willis had a year to forget in 2007. But, with the trade to a World Series contender, a league switch, and a great lineup, he is in a position to bounce back. The league switch alone will improve his numbers. Hitters haven't really faced his quirky delivery and may have problems adjusting to it for the first few times around. I don't expect him to revert back to his 2005 form when he won 22 games with an ERA of 2.63, nor do I expect him to be as bad as he was last year. I see him being somewhere in between. Expect an ERA around 4.00, 13-16 wins just because of the lineup, and decent K's and WHIP. I consider Willis a 4th starter with a good chance of being a #3.
Nate Robertson: By now we all know what Nate Robertson is. He is very inconsistent from start to start. He shows flashes of brilliance followed by utter disaster. One thing he will be doing is playing on a team that could win over 90 games. He will be matching up against other team's #4 and #5 starters. If used properly, like 2 start weeks or favorable matchups, Robertson could provide a boost to fantasy teams.
Bullpen: Todd Jones returns to close for the Tigers in 2008. Jones is going to be ranked as a top 20 closer going into 2008 but it mostly has to do with his surrounding cast and situation. He will be playing for a team that will win tons of games and with the lineup behind him he will most likely come into games with a 3 run lead most nights. Jones is an overachiever at this point. With his age and poor K rate he can't truly be considered great amoung closer options. However, saves is a category and he will provide a bunch of them so he does have value.
Grabbing Fernando Rodney as a backup to Jones could be a smart play. Rodney did have an off year last year but mostly because of injuries lingering throughout the year. He will be first in line for saves if Jones fails in his role as closer.
Now granted, the Tigers pitchers aren't going to light the world on fire (except for Verlander) but they do provide some value. Detroit will be a top team in the AL and having a 3rd or 4th starter on the good team is usually better than have a 2nd or 3rd starter on a bad team. Keep the players in mind when most of the top talent is off the board and use them round out your fantasy rotation.
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