The Tigers have been very active in this year's offseason, and as with all baseball moves, it affects fantasy baseball strategy. One thing that is very evident about the 2008 Tigers is: everyone in their lineup and rotation could contribute to fantasy teams. Detroit's infield offers up lots of fine fantasy options for any GM.
The biggest force in the order will be the addition of Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera has been putting up big numbers for years now and joining a lineup such as the Tigers should only improve him further. His homers may take a small dip with him now playing in Comerica, but that is far from guaranteed to happen. His runs and rbis will increase with the improved hitters batting before and after him.
Edgar Renteria is pretty consistent. He will provide a solid average, double digit homers and steals, with a fair amount of runs and rbis. He will most likely bats 7th which isn't great but most hitters batting 7th won't have Ivan Rodriguez and Jacque Jones following them in the order. Renteria will still put up decent stats and is a solid tier 2 SS.
Placido Polanco is a decent fantasy option at 2b after all the top options are off the board. He really only provides production in average and runs but having a player like that will allow alot of flexibility for the rest of your team. His high average will offset a player on your team who won't hit for average but may provide homers and rbis (ex. Adam Dunn). Polanco is a solid backup who won't hurt your team if you have to start him if your starting 2b gets hurt.
Carlos Guillen is moving over from SS to 1b this year. Luckily he will still qualify at SS for fantasy purpose for at least this year. Guillen is always an injury risk but he is very consistent and productive when on the field. The move to 1b may help in keeping him healthy all year. Expect a solid year of .300, 20 hrs, 90+runs, 100+rbis, and double digit steals.
Ivan Rodriguez is no longer a top fantasy catcher but he still provides decent production. He will hit .280, 10 homers, 50 runs, 60+rbis, and a handful of steals. Ivan only batted .281 for the year but he did have a .302 avg vs. LHP.
Gary Sheffield will be a DH for 2008, and while he is getting older he can still provide decent stats. He only batted .265 last year, which is his lowest in the last 4 years, but he did hit 25 hrs to go along with 22 steals. A year further removed from injuries may leave room for a bounceback year but temper expectations because age is against him.
The Tigers outfield offer some great fantasy options.
Magglio Ordonez put together a solid year and got some votes for MVP. His .363 avg is pretty extreme from what we are used to from Ordonez, but it should be safe to say he will hit .300+. His power numbers were good with 28 hrs, 139 rbis, and 117 runs. Don't expect much to change while batting in the middle of this solid lineup.
Curtis Granderson is quickly turning into a top outfield talent. His .302 avg is .30 points higher than any of the previous 3 years, and is remarkable considering his amount of strikeouts he gets (141/52 k/bb). He's getting more experience so perhaps his eye for the strike zone will get even better this year. He gives 20+hrs, 20+steals, and will be scoring tons of runs in this stacked lineup.
Jacque Jones is far from a great fantasy option but he does have uses. From 2004-2006 he averaged 24 hrs and 11 steals per year. Perhaps a switch back to the American league will bring back some of his production. He has the potential to provide some pop and some speed on the cheap.
The lineup is stacked with hitters who can hit for high averages, provide 20+ homer, tons of runs and rbis, with a few options for steals. Come draft day, the Tigers will be prowling so don't be afraid to capture one for your team. A look at the rotation/bullpen in part 2.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
understanding value
If you asked any baseball fan on the planet who is a better hitter Carlos Pena or Albert Pujols. You are first going to be looked at very funny and if he/she cares to answer they are going to say Pujols every time. Now if you ask a fantasy Baseball GM they will say, it depends.
It depends? Yes you read that correctly ladies and gentleman. It does in fact depend in Fantasy and even depends changes with each and every fantasy format. In a standard snake, its still Pujols pretty much every time, same goes for a standard keeper league. But as auction drafts and contract salary keeper leagues continue to grow. So must we as fantasy GM’s.
Last year Albert Pujols was amongst the top 3 in nearly every snake draft in the world. Carlos Pena , well he was taking real late, if at all in snake drafts and for good reason (he was suppose to start in triple a for god sake). The same was similar for Albert Pujols in auction drafts as he was amongst the highest paid and vice versa for Pena. Now lets say you have a fixed budget on draft day of $300 fantasy dollars. Albert probably cost you between 45-75 dollars. His production and trends merit a high price tag like this, but just how well does a player have to perform to make up for absorbing about twenty percent of your whole payroll? Well lets just say short of .330/45/120/120 it is not happening. So how does one succeed then in these auction formats if even the best of the best can not justify there salary. That my friends brings us to value.
The reason I used this extreme example with Carlos Pena was for the exact thing he did last year. He finally burst on the scene and became the monster we thought he could be(46/121/99) some fantasy owners got Pena very cheap on draft day or in the very, very late rounds of a snake. Other probably even got him off waivers and it cost them next to nothing. Now there was no way of knowing he was going to put up the numbers he did. But what was the potential risk vs. reward? What was the immediate value and potential value of Pena? The answer is very minimal in terms of cost. Imagine he only put up half the numbers he did, maybe he only hits 25 homers and drives in 85. Well for the waiver claim, or $2 to $3 dollars it cost you, you are still getting incredible value for him.
The same goes for the rest of your draft and supplementing your star core that often ties up a lot of your payroll on draft day. Another way to look at it is like this. Lets say you are going to take $200 of your $300 draft day dollars and draft a top tier 1b, 3b, SS, OF and SP. You therefore have set aside an avg of $40 dollars per player. This method can be very successful if you can supplement the rest of your draft with solid value. Three tricks to help with this method are
1-setting a ceiling for yourself: if you set a certain ceiling in an auction draft for a cut off point on certain players you will do well as you can budget ahead of time and let the pieces fall as they may.
2-adjusting to the market: this maybe the toughest thing to do, but if you can do it you wlll go very far. No matter how many pre-draft cheat sheets you look at, or how many projections you do. You can never plan exactly how other owners will both value players and spend there money. If you go in expecting certain players and/or positions to go for a certain price and notice that they are either going extremely over or under adjust and take advantage. EX: you have Miguel Cabrera ceiling at $45 yet A-Rod goes for $40 and David Wright goes for $37, it is probably safe to say you can lower you ceiling on Cabrera by at least $8. Drafts can often go in the other direction as well, so just be mindful.
3-draft Tiers first, Names second-This one sounds so simple in theory, yet on draft day most simply over spend or draft to early a round because of a name. If you put Matt Holiday and Vladimir Guerro in the same tear then set the same ceiling and bid accordingly. Do not pay 10 more dollars because Vlad is Vlad!
The core concept behind this post is to really have an understanding that the best player is not always the best pick. We have to always be mindful as fantasy GM’s that we are running a team first. Sure it is fun to have two to three all stars who put up godly stats. But is it enough to win if you surround them with a bunch of no name under achievers? So remember spend wisely and pick accordingly with one eye on the present and one on the rest of the draft.
It depends? Yes you read that correctly ladies and gentleman. It does in fact depend in Fantasy and even depends changes with each and every fantasy format. In a standard snake, its still Pujols pretty much every time, same goes for a standard keeper league. But as auction drafts and contract salary keeper leagues continue to grow. So must we as fantasy GM’s.
Last year Albert Pujols was amongst the top 3 in nearly every snake draft in the world. Carlos Pena , well he was taking real late, if at all in snake drafts and for good reason (he was suppose to start in triple a for god sake). The same was similar for Albert Pujols in auction drafts as he was amongst the highest paid and vice versa for Pena. Now lets say you have a fixed budget on draft day of $300 fantasy dollars. Albert probably cost you between 45-75 dollars. His production and trends merit a high price tag like this, but just how well does a player have to perform to make up for absorbing about twenty percent of your whole payroll? Well lets just say short of .330/45/120/120 it is not happening. So how does one succeed then in these auction formats if even the best of the best can not justify there salary. That my friends brings us to value.
The reason I used this extreme example with Carlos Pena was for the exact thing he did last year. He finally burst on the scene and became the monster we thought he could be(46/121/99) some fantasy owners got Pena very cheap on draft day or in the very, very late rounds of a snake. Other probably even got him off waivers and it cost them next to nothing. Now there was no way of knowing he was going to put up the numbers he did. But what was the potential risk vs. reward? What was the immediate value and potential value of Pena? The answer is very minimal in terms of cost. Imagine he only put up half the numbers he did, maybe he only hits 25 homers and drives in 85. Well for the waiver claim, or $2 to $3 dollars it cost you, you are still getting incredible value for him.
The same goes for the rest of your draft and supplementing your star core that often ties up a lot of your payroll on draft day. Another way to look at it is like this. Lets say you are going to take $200 of your $300 draft day dollars and draft a top tier 1b, 3b, SS, OF and SP. You therefore have set aside an avg of $40 dollars per player. This method can be very successful if you can supplement the rest of your draft with solid value. Three tricks to help with this method are
1-setting a ceiling for yourself: if you set a certain ceiling in an auction draft for a cut off point on certain players you will do well as you can budget ahead of time and let the pieces fall as they may.
2-adjusting to the market: this maybe the toughest thing to do, but if you can do it you wlll go very far. No matter how many pre-draft cheat sheets you look at, or how many projections you do. You can never plan exactly how other owners will both value players and spend there money. If you go in expecting certain players and/or positions to go for a certain price and notice that they are either going extremely over or under adjust and take advantage. EX: you have Miguel Cabrera ceiling at $45 yet A-Rod goes for $40 and David Wright goes for $37, it is probably safe to say you can lower you ceiling on Cabrera by at least $8. Drafts can often go in the other direction as well, so just be mindful.
3-draft Tiers first, Names second-This one sounds so simple in theory, yet on draft day most simply over spend or draft to early a round because of a name. If you put Matt Holiday and Vladimir Guerro in the same tear then set the same ceiling and bid accordingly. Do not pay 10 more dollars because Vlad is Vlad!
The core concept behind this post is to really have an understanding that the best player is not always the best pick. We have to always be mindful as fantasy GM’s that we are running a team first. Sure it is fun to have two to three all stars who put up godly stats. But is it enough to win if you surround them with a bunch of no name under achievers? So remember spend wisely and pick accordingly with one eye on the present and one on the rest of the draft.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
QUICK HITS 12/14/07
DAN HAREN: Haren was traded to the Diamondbacks as part of an 8 player trade. The players sent to Oakland for Haren are all prospects with the most notable player being OF Carlos Gonzalez. Haren moves to more of a hitters park than he is used to in Oakland. However, he is a top tier talent, coming into his prime so expect another solid year. Haren is a groundball pitcher so he won't be as affected and now he gets to face the pitcher a couple of times a game, so a slight increase in K's is a strong possibility.
JOSE VALVERDE: Valverde was traded to the Astros in exchange for RP Chad Qualls, 2B/OF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez. Valverde will slide right into the closer role for the Astros. Valverde is still somewhat a risky choice due to his injury history. With his 47 saves last year he was a solid closer. Let him put together another solid year before putting him into the top tiers of closers.
CHAD QUALLS: Qualls was traded to the Diamondbacks as part of the Jose Valverde trade. Qualls will join Brandon Lyon in setting up Tony Pena. If Pena struggles Qualls could possibly slide into the closer role. He could be someone to watch so think about him in late rounds of your draft, and take him if you draft Pena just in case.
CHRIS BURKE: Burke was traded to the Diamondbacks as part of the Jose Valverde trade. Burke will be a utility player with the Diamondbacks backing up Orlando Hudson at 2B as well as the outfield positions. Burke could also take over for Hudson if he leaves after this year when he is a free agent.
JOSE VALVERDE: Valverde was traded to the Astros in exchange for RP Chad Qualls, 2B/OF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez. Valverde will slide right into the closer role for the Astros. Valverde is still somewhat a risky choice due to his injury history. With his 47 saves last year he was a solid closer. Let him put together another solid year before putting him into the top tiers of closers.
CHAD QUALLS: Qualls was traded to the Diamondbacks as part of the Jose Valverde trade. Qualls will join Brandon Lyon in setting up Tony Pena. If Pena struggles Qualls could possibly slide into the closer role. He could be someone to watch so think about him in late rounds of your draft, and take him if you draft Pena just in case.
CHRIS BURKE: Burke was traded to the Diamondbacks as part of the Jose Valverde trade. Burke will be a utility player with the Diamondbacks backing up Orlando Hudson at 2B as well as the outfield positions. Burke could also take over for Hudson if he leaves after this year when he is a free agent.
WHEN TO RISK IT
So, what is the most important strategy of a fantasy draft? Is it to find value at every position? Is it to create a balance of speed and power? How about when to draft pitchers, starters or relievers? While all of those are important the most important strategy of a fantasy draft is RISK AVERSION.
The core of your team must be built around strong, reliable players. You need players that are consistently productive and consistently healthy. Early picks cannot be used on potential breakout candidates or players who have 1 year or less of solid productivity. Those players have a spot on your team but it has to be on your terms at a time of your choosing.
The key is to be in a position where you do not have to rely on these risky players to succeed. You need to be in position where if these risky players don’t work out your core team is still strong enough to compete. Let’s take a look at an example of this strategy.
Every year there are certain players who tease us with their upside, or make us think that this is the year that player puts it together for the whole year. We as fantasy GMs want to be the one to reap these rewards but we must not be reckless when drafting these types of players. Last year one of the players to fit this description was Rich Harden.
For the last few years Harden has shown glimpses of being an elite pitcher with all the tools to be dominant. GMs were in awe of the stats he put up in the 2007 spring training: 17 2/3 IP, 29/4 K to walk ratio, 1.53 era, with only 3 runs on 13 hits allowed. He has the tools, he has potential, he put up elite stats, and does that mean we put him as a top tier pitching choice, absolutely not.
There is no situation where you want to be in where you have to rely on Rich Harden to anchor your rotation. He has never pitched over 200 innings in a year, in fact 3 of the last 5 years he has 75 innings or less.
So what does a team look like that can afford to take a chance on Rich Harden? As you are assembling your team you look at your pitching staff and see you have 3 reliable pitchers. Your staff is Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Mark Beuhrle. Those are 3 solid pitchers who put up solid numbers year in and year out. You are in the middle to late rounds in the draft (12-16) and Harden is available. This is the time to take a chance on Harden because if he succeeds for the year he will provide ace stats. If he fails you still have your core 3 pitchers to rely on.
When evaluating who to draft and when to draft them take into account certain criteria. One is a player’s age. Are they young and unproven or are they getting older and production on the decline. Health is a huge part of deciding who to draft. Injuries are part of the game and some of them cannot be predicted. Certain players seem to get injured in some form or another every year (Harden, Prior, Wood, etc). Your players need to be on the field for you to get stats.
Stay away from players coming off surgery, pitchers especially. Could these players come back and contribute at a high level immediately? Of course they can but let someone else take that chance.
Also look at a player’s team, lineup, defense, bullpen, and stadium. A pitcher who switches leagues needs time to adjust to the new league. Superstars are going to perform no matter where they play but the lower tier players may need more adjustment time.
Never fall in love with a name. Don’t get caught up in the frenzy of the next best thing. Ask these two questions when drafting a risky player: Am I counting on this guy to deliver and be healthy, and can I compete if this player fails? Allow yourself to be in a position to receive a “bonus” from these players and you will have long term success.
The core of your team must be built around strong, reliable players. You need players that are consistently productive and consistently healthy. Early picks cannot be used on potential breakout candidates or players who have 1 year or less of solid productivity. Those players have a spot on your team but it has to be on your terms at a time of your choosing.
The key is to be in a position where you do not have to rely on these risky players to succeed. You need to be in position where if these risky players don’t work out your core team is still strong enough to compete. Let’s take a look at an example of this strategy.
Every year there are certain players who tease us with their upside, or make us think that this is the year that player puts it together for the whole year. We as fantasy GMs want to be the one to reap these rewards but we must not be reckless when drafting these types of players. Last year one of the players to fit this description was Rich Harden.
For the last few years Harden has shown glimpses of being an elite pitcher with all the tools to be dominant. GMs were in awe of the stats he put up in the 2007 spring training: 17 2/3 IP, 29/4 K to walk ratio, 1.53 era, with only 3 runs on 13 hits allowed. He has the tools, he has potential, he put up elite stats, and does that mean we put him as a top tier pitching choice, absolutely not.
There is no situation where you want to be in where you have to rely on Rich Harden to anchor your rotation. He has never pitched over 200 innings in a year, in fact 3 of the last 5 years he has 75 innings or less.
So what does a team look like that can afford to take a chance on Rich Harden? As you are assembling your team you look at your pitching staff and see you have 3 reliable pitchers. Your staff is Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Mark Beuhrle. Those are 3 solid pitchers who put up solid numbers year in and year out. You are in the middle to late rounds in the draft (12-16) and Harden is available. This is the time to take a chance on Harden because if he succeeds for the year he will provide ace stats. If he fails you still have your core 3 pitchers to rely on.
When evaluating who to draft and when to draft them take into account certain criteria. One is a player’s age. Are they young and unproven or are they getting older and production on the decline. Health is a huge part of deciding who to draft. Injuries are part of the game and some of them cannot be predicted. Certain players seem to get injured in some form or another every year (Harden, Prior, Wood, etc). Your players need to be on the field for you to get stats.
Stay away from players coming off surgery, pitchers especially. Could these players come back and contribute at a high level immediately? Of course they can but let someone else take that chance.
Also look at a player’s team, lineup, defense, bullpen, and stadium. A pitcher who switches leagues needs time to adjust to the new league. Superstars are going to perform no matter where they play but the lower tier players may need more adjustment time.
Never fall in love with a name. Don’t get caught up in the frenzy of the next best thing. Ask these two questions when drafting a risky player: Am I counting on this guy to deliver and be healthy, and can I compete if this player fails? Allow yourself to be in a position to receive a “bonus” from these players and you will have long term success.
Draft leagues vs. Auction leagues
When deciding to start or join a fantasy baseball league you must choose which draft format you want. Is one better than the other? It truly comes down to your individual desire and commitment as well as that of the other owners who will be a part of your league.
A typical draft league has a format where a random draft order is created for all the owners in the league. Each owner goes one at a time picking the player they desire from the available pool of players in a snake format (pick 1-10 then 10-1) until all rounds are completed.
In an auction league, owners start with a designated amount of available money to spend on a specific number of positions ($300 for 23 players). A random draft order is generated just like a draft league and each owner, one at a time, announces a player that they want to put up for auction with a price (Ex. Pujols for $20). At this time any owner can make a higher bid for the opportunity to win the player. Bidding continues until the auctioneer says going, going, gone. The owner with the last bid now receives that player and the amount that was spent is subtracted from the $300. Owners continue to announce players and bidding takes place until all teams have filled their roster. Teams cannot exceed their $300 allowable salary.
One of the main differences of these two types of drafts is the ability of an owner to get any player regardless of draft order. In an auction league every owner has a chance to get any player. When the player comes out it is up to each individual owner whether they will participate in the bidding process for that player. In a draft league, if you are at the bottom of the random draft order then you have no chance at getting certain players. In most drafts certain players will almost always be taken in the early picks. Players like Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, etc have very little chance of falling to the person with the 10th pick.
In addition to being able to buy any available player, the auction league also forces an owner to budget his/her designated amount of money. Can you go and buy the 4 top superstars for big money? Yes you can, but you must remember that you also have 19 other players that need to be bought as well. Not only must you be knowledgeable of baseball but you must also have a budget strategy.
The auction league is just an advanced version of fantasy baseball. It combines the economics of baseball with scouting knowledge. So when deciding, just take a look at the owners that will be participating and how committed they will be to the league.
Regardless of which one you choose, doing proper research and planning will give you the best chance for victory. The most important thing is to partake in a fantasy baseball league because it is a way to enjoy the game of baseball at a whole new level.
A typical draft league has a format where a random draft order is created for all the owners in the league. Each owner goes one at a time picking the player they desire from the available pool of players in a snake format (pick 1-10 then 10-1) until all rounds are completed.
In an auction league, owners start with a designated amount of available money to spend on a specific number of positions ($300 for 23 players). A random draft order is generated just like a draft league and each owner, one at a time, announces a player that they want to put up for auction with a price (Ex. Pujols for $20). At this time any owner can make a higher bid for the opportunity to win the player. Bidding continues until the auctioneer says going, going, gone. The owner with the last bid now receives that player and the amount that was spent is subtracted from the $300. Owners continue to announce players and bidding takes place until all teams have filled their roster. Teams cannot exceed their $300 allowable salary.
One of the main differences of these two types of drafts is the ability of an owner to get any player regardless of draft order. In an auction league every owner has a chance to get any player. When the player comes out it is up to each individual owner whether they will participate in the bidding process for that player. In a draft league, if you are at the bottom of the random draft order then you have no chance at getting certain players. In most drafts certain players will almost always be taken in the early picks. Players like Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, etc have very little chance of falling to the person with the 10th pick.
In addition to being able to buy any available player, the auction league also forces an owner to budget his/her designated amount of money. Can you go and buy the 4 top superstars for big money? Yes you can, but you must remember that you also have 19 other players that need to be bought as well. Not only must you be knowledgeable of baseball but you must also have a budget strategy.
The auction league is just an advanced version of fantasy baseball. It combines the economics of baseball with scouting knowledge. So when deciding, just take a look at the owners that will be participating and how committed they will be to the league.
Regardless of which one you choose, doing proper research and planning will give you the best chance for victory. The most important thing is to partake in a fantasy baseball league because it is a way to enjoy the game of baseball at a whole new level.
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