WHEN TO RISK IT

So, what is the most important strategy of a fantasy draft? Is it to find value at every position? Is it to create a balance of speed and power? How about when to draft pitchers, starters or relievers? While all of those are important the most important strategy of a fantasy draft is RISK AVERSION.

The core of your team must be built around strong, reliable players. You need players that are consistently productive and consistently healthy. Early picks cannot be used on potential breakout candidates or players who have 1 year or less of solid productivity. Those players have a spot on your team but it has to be on your terms at a time of your choosing.

The key is to be in a position where you do not have to rely on these risky players to succeed. You need to be in position where if these risky players don’t work out your core team is still strong enough to compete. Let’s take a look at an example of this strategy.

Every year there are certain players who tease us with their upside, or make us think that this is the year that player puts it together for the whole year. We as fantasy GMs want to be the one to reap these rewards but we must not be reckless when drafting these types of players. Last year one of the players to fit this description was Rich Harden.

For the last few years Harden has shown glimpses of being an elite pitcher with all the tools to be dominant. GMs were in awe of the stats he put up in the 2007 spring training: 17 2/3 IP, 29/4 K to walk ratio, 1.53 era, with only 3 runs on 13 hits allowed. He has the tools, he has potential, he put up elite stats, and does that mean we put him as a top tier pitching choice, absolutely not.

There is no situation where you want to be in where you have to rely on Rich Harden to anchor your rotation. He has never pitched over 200 innings in a year, in fact 3 of the last 5 years he has 75 innings or less.

So what does a team look like that can afford to take a chance on Rich Harden? As you are assembling your team you look at your pitching staff and see you have 3 reliable pitchers. Your staff is Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Mark Beuhrle. Those are 3 solid pitchers who put up solid numbers year in and year out. You are in the middle to late rounds in the draft (12-16) and Harden is available. This is the time to take a chance on Harden because if he succeeds for the year he will provide ace stats. If he fails you still have your core 3 pitchers to rely on.

When evaluating who to draft and when to draft them take into account certain criteria. One is a player’s age. Are they young and unproven or are they getting older and production on the decline. Health is a huge part of deciding who to draft. Injuries are part of the game and some of them cannot be predicted. Certain players seem to get injured in some form or another every year (Harden, Prior, Wood, etc). Your players need to be on the field for you to get stats.
Stay away from players coming off surgery, pitchers especially. Could these players come back and contribute at a high level immediately? Of course they can but let someone else take that chance.

Also look at a player’s team, lineup, defense, bullpen, and stadium. A pitcher who switches leagues needs time to adjust to the new league. Superstars are going to perform no matter where they play but the lower tier players may need more adjustment time.

Never fall in love with a name. Don’t get caught up in the frenzy of the next best thing. Ask these two questions when drafting a risky player: Am I counting on this guy to deliver and be healthy, and can I compete if this player fails? Allow yourself to be in a position to receive a “bonus” from these players and you will have long term success.